The Pandemic’s Disruption of the Paper Industry
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global paper shortage, accelerating the paper industry’s decline. Major producers like Finland’s Stora Enso shut down mills, cutting capacity by more than a third. The Business Research Company reported severe disruptions in 2020, with broken supply chains and falling demand due to worldwide lockdowns. As industries scrambled to go virtual, paper consumption plummeted, deepening the paper shortage.
In the U.S., falling demand initially raised fears of a prolonged economic slump. But by 2021, demand rebounded sharply. Businesses worldwide rushed to meet the surge—but the paper industry couldn’t keep up. Despite the recovery, paper mills continued to struggle, and closures piled up.
Supply Chain Chaos and Price Hikes
In the early months of the pandemic, essentials like hand sanitizer, disinfectant wipes, meat, and toilet paper ran low. A year and a half later, paper supply chains were still strained.
NBC News reported that the U.S. faced an ongoing paper shortage, hitting everything from envelopes to books. One bride-to-be said her wedding invitations were delayed for weeks because her vendor ran out of envelope stock. Booksellers also felt the crunch. While sales surged, supply chain issues made restocking difficult—especially during the holidays when demand spikes.
Labor shortages and disrupted logistics delayed print orders for many. To make things worse, the delta variant forced mills to scale back operations. Some mills even pivoted to produce cardboard for online orders. Meanwhile, input costs surged. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 50.2% increase in wood pulp prices over the past year. Paper prices followed, jumping 14.2%.
Experts warn that the paper crisis could persist through 2023.
Why Paper Prices Keep Climbing
Several factors continue to drive up paper costs:
1. Increased Production Costs
The Producer Price Index for pulp and paper products rose over 38% between February 2017 and April 2021. Prices have not stabilized, and further hikes are likely.
2. Plant Closures and Reduced Output
When paper demand plummeted in 2020, many manufacturers cut capacity. Even as demand returned in 2021, output stayed low. Many mills in the U.S. and Europe shut down permanently, creating a lasting gap between supply and demand.
3. Raw Material Shortages
Wood pulp prices rose 20% in just one year. More people stuck at home led to a boom in renovations and DIY projects, increasing demand for lumber—and pushing pulp costs higher.
4. Mill Price Hikes
Mills are raising prices to manage higher costs and meet growing demand. U.S. and international mills producing coated, uncoated, and paperboard products have all announced increases.
5. Transportation and Logistics Issues
Shipping delays, fuel price spikes, and port congestion have made paper deliveries slower and more expensive. A lack of containers and available ships continues to disrupt global supply chains.
Outlook: What’s Next for Paper?
Printers and paper buyers must carefully manage supply and demand. Suzano SA, the world’s largest wood pulp producer, warns that global container shortages could delay shipments. This comes just as demand for residential toilet paper surges again—raising fears of another round of panic buying.
Paper shortages are no longer limited to toilet paper. Other paper types—used for printing, packaging, and publishing—are also scarce. Businesses and consumers are waiting weeks for deliveries. Some even avoid using copy machines due to limited supplies.
Labor shortages, shipping delays, and increased packaging production are all contributing to the paper crunch. As mills pivot to higher-margin packaging materials, traditional paper production keeps declining.
David Coleman of Argus Research notes that the long-term trend is clear: less demand for traditional paper, more demand for packaging. As manufacturers chase profits, pulp prices rise—and paper gets harder to find.
Final Thoughts: Prepare and Adapt
There is paper— but it may not be the type you need. Flexibility is essential. Printers must work closely with clients to identify alternate stocks early and build in extra lead time.
To manage the paper shortage, businesses should alert their print partners about upcoming jobs as early as possible. With proactive planning and strong communication, we can keep production moving—even during a global crunch.
